Environmental Decision-Making Under Abrupt Transformation: Lessons from the Nova Kakhovka Dam Breach and Data-Driven Dengue Control

Abstract

Abrupt environmental transformations create two simultaneous problems: rapid change in the physical system and disruption of the data required to understand and manage it. This contribution examines this challenge through two contrasting cases.

The first is the catastrophic breach of the Nova Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine on 6 June 2023, which drained the reservoir, interrupted irrigation, flooded downstream areas and mobilised pollution. A rapid assessment after the breach shows what could be established from available information, which concerns required further analysis, and how data quality affected interpretation and decision-making.

The second case concerns data-driven dengue control in endemic countries. Disease surveillance, mosquito-vector control and hospital preparedness depend on near-real-time information on cases, serotypes, climate and environmental conditions, supported by historical records. Population displacement, conflict, lockdowns and interrupted monitoring can change transmission conditions while weakening the information systems used to respond.

The cases are not presented as environmentally equivalent. Their methodological connection is a decision problem: maintaining defensible analysis when both the monitored system and the evidence infrastructure change. The presentation argues that resilience requires baselines, preparation for interrupted data streams and explicit treatment of uncertainty in environmental and public-health decisions.